tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2295869345625274211.post8394082333462403055..comments2023-12-18T10:15:52.664-06:00Comments on Gillette-Torvik Blog: On VotingBart Torvikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13661031240106200076noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2295869345625274211.post-34356843671508102482016-09-20T16:41:14.384-05:002016-09-20T16:41:14.384-05:00“... if everyone followed my advice the President ...“... if everyone followed my advice the President would be the person who the most people actually want to be president. This strikes me as a very defensible result.”<br /><br />Ah, I wish I’d seen this sooner. The conclusion you claim is not quite right. <br /><br />If everyone follows your advice the winner will be the person with the largest minority; they may well be the person whom “THE MOST people” actually don’t want.<br /><br />Any rational voter needs to consider all the facts; including the likelihood of their preference winning, and worst-case scenarios. If the worst case is not too bad, then a rational person can vote accordingly. In that situation your idealism is reasonably rational.<br /><br />But if the worst case is something they recognize as truly horrendous, then a rational person will vote accordingly. Ignoring pertinent facts is idealistic and foolish; a rational, realistic person recognizes that mediocre is better than awful.<br /><br />This is merely a variation on the “prisoner’s dilemma”.<br /><br />sean s.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2295869345625274211.post-37824682698012942572016-08-07T22:53:49.999-05:002016-08-07T22:53:49.999-05:00As stated in my old comment above, the point is to...As stated in my old comment above, the point is to let you fell good about voting for who you want to win, which is after all what Democracy is supposed to be all about. I see no downside in this. Bart Torvikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13661031240106200076noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2295869345625274211.post-12475888318217127832016-08-07T21:24:40.279-05:002016-08-07T21:24:40.279-05:00But why not state the obvious--the thing that migh...But why not state the obvious--the thing that might actually make people feel better than just telling them their own vote is insignificant? Yes, statistically speaking no one person or vote determines an election. But that isn't the same as saying the vote doesn't matter. All the votes together are what matter. The preponderance of votes is the thing, not the individual vote. And then we have to figure in the workings of the electoral college. But I don't see the point or the reality of saying a single vote is "insignificant." A dollar is insignificant, generally, until you personally have a million of them together to spend as you wish. But that doesn't mean that any one dollar doesn't matter. Having zero of those single dollars would be a drag, but being "on the way" to a preponderance of dollars is not insignificant.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2295869345625274211.post-85181112773081176272012-10-02T09:11:30.520-05:002012-10-02T09:11:30.520-05:00Excellent points. Agreed.Excellent points. Agreed.Seth Leventhalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11171579866617954382noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2295869345625274211.post-91974336796679751732012-09-29T23:25:00.774-05:002012-09-29T23:25:00.774-05:00Actually, your chances of winning the lottery are ...Actually, your chances of winning the lottery are a lot better than the chances of your vote deciding who becomes president. And if the jackpot is big enough, playing the lottery is actually "rational". E.g., if the odds of winning are 1 in 100,000,000 and a ticket costs a dollar, it's a good bet if the jackpot (after taxes) is more than $100,000,000 (because your "expected return" is greater than your investment/bet).<br /><br />Your point about human psychology is astute, and I agree wholeheartedly. But the point of realizing the insignificance of your vote is not to feel bad about your own "irrational" voting behavior but rather to feel superior to others who nonsensically accuse you of "wasting your vote" when you use it in a way they don't like.Bart Torvikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13661031240106200076noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2295869345625274211.post-89793513105878739082012-09-29T16:04:12.261-05:002012-09-29T16:04:12.261-05:00I think the paradox of voting is consistent with a...I think the paradox of voting is consistent with a lot of "irrational" human behavior, which I define as conduct whose certain and real costs overwhelmingly exceed any likely benefit. (No better example than the lottery.) Our minds are deeply and fundamentally "programmed" to be self-centered, to exaggerate our power and our significance, incapable of fully appreciating our insignificance, our ignorance, our powerlessness. "Prove" to people they cannot ever win the lottery or that their vote will make no difference ever. Most will hear you out, and then buy a few tickets and/or vote (including me).Seth Leventhalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11171579866617954382noreply@blogger.com